Widespread increase in frequency and duration of European wind droughts based on CMIP6 projections
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Guillermo Valenzuela-Venegas, David Ruiz Banos, Trude Storelvmo, Marianne Zeyringer
TL;DR
Climate change is expected to increase weak wind events in western Europe and strong wind events in some offshore areas, affecting wind power reliability.
Contribution
This study identifies regional changes in wind droughts and extreme wind events in Europe using CMIP6 projections.
Findings
Annual frequency of weak wind events increases by 10%–20% in western Europe.
Strong wind events could rise by up to 70% in the southern North Sea and offshore northern Spain.
Duration of weak wind events is projected to increase in northern and eastern Europe.
Abstract
To combat climate change, wind power represents an important energy source. However, the availability and reliability of wind resources are subject to weather conditions and the potential impact of climate change. This study utilizes five CMIP6 model projections under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario to analyze future wind speeds and extreme wind events across Europe for the periods 2040–2059 and 2080–2099. We find a widespread increase in the annual frequency of weak wind events up to 10%–20% in some regions, most significantly over western Europe. While winter frequencies for weak winds may decrease in some regions, the duration of these events is projected to rise in northern and eastern Europe. Conversely, and with less model agreement, strong wind events could increase by up to 70% in the southern North Sea and offshore northern Spain. These results underscore the critical need…
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Taxonomy
TopicsClimate variability and models · Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations