# Widespread increase in frequency and duration of European wind droughts based on CMIP6 projections

## TL;DR

Climate change is expected to increase weak wind events in western Europe and strong wind events in some offshore areas, affecting wind power reliability.

## Contribution

This study identifies regional changes in wind droughts and extreme wind events in Europe using CMIP6 projections.

## Key findings

- Annual frequency of weak wind events increases by 10%–20% in western Europe.
- Strong wind events could rise by up to 70% in the southern North Sea and offshore northern Spain.
- Duration of weak wind events is projected to increase in northern and eastern Europe.

## Abstract

To combat climate change, wind power represents an important energy source. However, the availability and reliability of wind resources are subject to weather conditions and the potential impact of climate change. This study utilizes five CMIP6 model projections under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario to analyze future wind speeds and extreme wind events across Europe for the periods 2040–2059 and 2080–2099. We find a widespread increase in the annual frequency of weak wind events up to 10%–20% in some regions, most significantly over western Europe. While winter frequencies for weak winds may decrease in some regions, the duration of these events is projected to rise in northern and eastern Europe. Conversely, and with less model agreement, strong wind events could increase by up to 70% in the southern North Sea and offshore northern Spain. These results underscore the critical need for climate adaptive and climate-resilient energy systems planning.

•Climate change impacts both low and high extreme wind speed events•Increase in future annual low-wind events over western Europe•Longer and more frequent strong wind events for certain offshore regions•Extreme winds need climate-adaptive energy strategies for long-term system stability

Climate change impacts both low and high extreme wind speed events

Increase in future annual low-wind events over western Europe

Longer and more frequent strong wind events for certain offshore regions

Extreme winds need climate-adaptive energy strategies for long-term system stability

Atmosphere modeling; Environmental management; Environmental science