Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage

TL;DR

This paper estimates the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects using historical data, finding significant potential overruns with high certainty, highlighting substantial risks involved.

Contribution

It introduces an independent risk assessment method based on a large reference class of past projects, providing quantitative estimates of overruns.

Findings

Cost overrun risk is up to 202% with 80% certainty.

Schedule overrun risk is up to 104% with 80% certainty.

Both cost and schedule risks are substantial for nuclear waste storage.

Abstract

This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of an overrun above 202%. Based on a reference class of 200 past, comparable projects, risk of schedule overrun was found to be 104% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of overrun above 104%. Cost risk and schedule risk are both substantial for nuclear waste storage projects.