# Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage

## TL;DR

This paper estimates the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects using historical data, finding significant potential overruns with high certainty, highlighting substantial risks involved.

## Contribution

It introduces an independent risk assessment method based on a large reference class of past projects, providing quantitative estimates of overruns.

## Key findings

- Cost overrun risk is up to 202% with 80% certainty.
- Schedule overrun risk is up to 104% with 80% certainty.
- Both cost and schedule risks are substantial for nuclear waste storage.

## Abstract

This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of an overrun above 202%. Based on a reference class of 200 past, comparable projects, risk of schedule overrun was found to be 104% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of overrun above 104%. Cost risk and schedule risk are both substantial for nuclear waste storage projects.

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Source: https://tomesphere.com/paper/1901.11123