Ecosystems in the Mind: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps of the Kizilirmak Delta Wetlands in Turkey
Uygar Ozesmi

TL;DR
This study uses fuzzy cognitive maps derived from local villagers, NGOs, and officials to analyze the social-ecological system of Turkey's Kizilirmak Delta, highlighting the importance of local knowledge in ecosystem management and conservation.
Contribution
It introduces a villager-centered cognitive mapping approach to incorporate local understanding into ecosystem management and policy formulation.
Findings
Villagers have more complex and comprehensive cognitive maps than officials.
Local knowledge emphasizes agricultural and animal husbandry variables.
Cognitive maps facilitate stakeholder discussion and reconciliation of perspectives.
Abstract
Sustainability of ecosystems & ecosystem management are increasingly accepted societal goals. Can conservation programs be improved by incorporating local people's understanding of ecosystems? The Kizilirmak Delta is one of Turkey's most important wetland complexes. It is also one of the most productive agricultural deltas in Turkey. We obtained 31 cognitive models of the social & ecological system. These models were converted to adjacency matrices, analyzed using graph theoretical methods, & augmented into social cognitive maps. Causal "What-if" scenarios were run to determine the trajectory of the ecosystem based on models defined by stakeholders. Villagers had significantly larger numbers of variables, more complex maps, a broader understanding of all the variables that affect the Kizilirmak Delta, & mentioned more variables that control the ecosystem than did NGO and government…
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Taxonomy
TopicsCognitive Science and Mapping · Multi-Criteria Decision Making · Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
