Change-point detection in the historical hurricane number time-series: why can't we detect change-points at US landfall?

TL;DR

This paper investigates why a clear change in hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin around 1994-1995 is not reflected in the US landfall hurricane data, exploring statistical explanations for this discrepancy.

Contribution

The study provides a statistical analysis explaining why change-points in basin hurricane counts are not detectable in landfall hurricane counts.

Findings

Change-point at 1994-1995 is evident in basin data but not in landfall data.

Statistical factors can explain the absence of detectable change-points in landfall series.

Implications for interpreting hurricane trend analyses in different datasets.

Abstract

The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same obvious change of level. Prima-facie this seems rather surprising, given that the landfalling hurricanes are a subset of the basin hurricanes. We investigate whether it really should be considered surprising or whether there is a simple statistical explanation for the disappearance of this change-point at landfall.