Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900

TL;DR

This paper improves hurricane landfall prediction by modeling four distinct historical activity levels since 1900, enhancing the understanding of future hurricane risk in the US.

Contribution

It introduces a refined model that accounts for four different levels of mean hurricane activity over time, advancing previous two-level models.

Findings

Enhanced prediction accuracy for US landfalling hurricanes.

Identification of four distinct activity levels since 1900.

Improved understanding of long-term hurricane activity trends.

Abstract

In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then. We now make this model a little more subtle, and account for the possibility of four different levels of mean hurricane activity since 1900.