Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes
Shree Khare, Stephen Jewson
TL;DR
This paper develops simple methods to predict the annual number of intense US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance, finding that different averaging lengths are optimal for intense versus all hurricanes.
Contribution
It extends previous work by focusing on intense hurricanes and identifying optimal averaging lengths for predictions.
Findings
Longer averaging lengths are needed for predicting intense hurricanes.
Optimal prediction methods differ between intense hurricanes and all hurricanes.
The study provides practical tools for hurricane forecasting.
Abstract
We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.
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Taxonomy
TopicsTropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Climate variability and models