Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

TL;DR

This paper introduces a straightforward averaging method for predicting the number of US landfalling hurricanes one year in advance, validated through backtesting to optimize window length.

Contribution

It proposes a simple, data-driven approach for hurricane landfall prediction using historical averages and evaluates its effectiveness through backtesting.

Findings

Optimal averaging window identified for best predictions

Method shows reasonable predictive skill in backtesting

Provides a practical tool for hurricane risk assessment

Abstract

We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of averaging window that would have given the best predictions in the past.