On the Nature of the El Nino/La Nina Events

TL;DR

This paper presents a scenario explaining El Nino/La Nina phenomena through a Super-Nino Event template, which accounts for observed climate features and predicts future events over a 15-year cycle.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of a Super-Nino Event and constructs a template explaining the sequence and types of El Nino/La Nina phenomena since 1968.

Findings

Three Super-Nino Events explain most observed features since 1968.

The current event started in the mid 1990s and will last 4-5 years.

A minor El Nino is predicted to occur around 2001.

Abstract

We propose a scenario that explains many of the Pacific Ocean climate phenomena that are called El Nino/ La Nina. This scenario requires an event, which we call a Super-Nino Event. It dominates other phenomena when it occurs. A template of this event has been constructed giving the time evolution, which is an alternating sequence of 'El Ninos' and 'La Ninas'. The duration of the event is about 15 years unless some other event intervenes. Three such events can explain most of the El Nino/La Nina features that have been observed since 1968. We find that the various El Nino/La Nina features that have been observed fall into types, associated with the oscillation in the template, which can be classified by a "Periodic Table". The Earth is presently experiencing one of these events which started in the mid 1990's and will continue for another 4-5 years. This extrapolation into the future suggests that a minor El Nino will begin in mid 2001 and will reach a maximum about a year later. The conditions under which such a Super Nino-Event may occur are discussed.