Is Our Universe Likely to Decay within 20 Billion Years?

TL;DR

This paper discusses the likelihood that our universe will decay within 20 billion years, based on observations and the rate of vacuum decay, suggesting a significant probability of decay in the near cosmic future.

Contribution

It introduces a novel argument linking vacuum fluctuation observations to the universe's decay rate, estimating a high probability of decay within 19 billion years.

Findings

Universe likely to decay within 19 Gyr

Decay rate inferred from cosmic acceleration measurements

Vacuum fluctuation considerations constrain universe's lifespan

Abstract

Observations that we are highly unlikely to be vacuum fluctuations suggest that our universe is decaying at a rate faster than the asymptotic volume growth rate, in order that there not be too many observers produced by vacuum fluctuations to make our observations highly atypical. An asymptotic linear e-folding time of roughly 16 Gyr (deduced from current measurements of cosmic acceleration) would then imply that our universe is more likely than not to decay within a time that is less than 19 Gyr in the future.