Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation

TL;DR

This paper proposes a holographic approach to defining probabilities in eternal inflation, resolving ambiguities and paradoxes by focusing on local measures and entropy-based observer emergence, enabling prior-free cosmological predictions.

Contribution

It introduces a holographic local probability measure for eternal inflation and a novel entropy-based method to estimate observer emergence without anthropic assumptions.

Findings

Local holographic measure resolves probability ambiguities.

Entropy estimates provide prior-free observer likelihoods.

Method offers consistent predictions in eternal inflation scenarios.

Abstract

In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes, and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.