Uncertainties and Discovery Potential in Planned Experiments

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new method for estimating the discovery potential of planned experiments for new physics, accounting for systematic uncertainties and providing more accurate significance measures than traditional methods.

Contribution

It proposes an effective significance measure for planned experiments and incorporates systematic uncertainties into the estimation of discovery potential.

Findings

Effective significance measure improves discovery potential estimation.

Systematic uncertainties significantly impact discovery probability.

Method applicable to searches like supersymmetry at LHC.

Abstract

We describe a method for estimation of the discovery potential on new physics in planned experiments. The effective significance of signal for given probability of observation is proposed for planned experiments instead of the usual significances S_1 = n_s/sqrt{n_b} and S_2 = n_s/sqrt{n_s+n_b}, where n_s and n_b are the average numbers of signal and background events. Application of the test of equal-probability allows to estimate the exclusion limits on new physics. We also estimate the influence of systematic uncertainty related to nonexact knowledge of signal and background cross sections on the discovery probability of new physics in planned experiments. An account of such systematics is very essential in the search for supersymmetry at LHC.