On the reliability of the so far performed tests for measuring the Lense-Thirring effect with the LAGEOS satellites

TL;DR

This paper critically examines the reliability of previous tests measuring the Lense-Thirring effect with LAGEOS satellites, highlighting potential overestimations of accuracy due to unaccounted factors.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis showing that existing measurements may be less accurate than claimed, emphasizing the need for cautious interpretation of results.

Findings

Reported 5-10% accuracy may be underestimated; actual could be 15-45%.

Impact of secular variations of Earth's gravity field significantly affects measurement reliability.

Previous optimistic claims may be misleading for fundamental physics tests.

Abstract

In this paper we will show in detail that the performed attempts aimed at the detection of the general relativistic Lense-Thirring effect in the gravitational field of the Earth with the existing LAGEOS satellites are often presented in an optimistic and misleading way which is inadequate for such an important test of fundamental physics. E.g., in the latest reported measurement of the gravitomagnetic shift with the nodes of the LAGEOS satellites and the 2nd generation GRACE-only EIGEN-GRACE02S Earth gravity model over an observational time span of 11 years a 5-10% total accuracy is claimed at 1-3sigma, respectively. We will show that, instead, it might be 15-45% (1-3sigma) if the impact of the secular variations of the even zonal harmonics is considered as well.