Evolution of the Internet AS-Level Ecosystem

TL;DR

This paper introduces a measurable, analytically tractable model of Internet AS-level evolution based on preferential attachment, successfully predicting key topology statistics and reinforcing the role of preferential attachment in Internet growth.

Contribution

It presents the multiclass preferential attachment (MPA) model with measurable parameters, bridging data and theory to validate Internet evolution mechanisms.

Findings

Model accurately predicts AS topology statistics

Parameters are directly measurable from data

Supports preferential attachment as key Internet growth driver

Abstract

We present an analytically tractable model of Internet evolution at the level of Autonomous Systems (ASs). We call our model the multiclass preferential attachment (MPA) model. As its name suggests, it is based on preferential attachment. All of its parameters are measurable from available Internet topology data. Given the estimated values of these parameters, our analytic results predict a definitive set of statistics characterizing the AS topology structure. These statistics are not part of the model formulation. The MPA model thus closes the "measure-model-validate-predict" loop, and provides further evidence that preferential attachment is a driving force behind Internet evolution.