Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the distribution of financial market index fluctuations across various time scales, revealing power-law behavior with an exponent around 3 for short-term returns and a slow convergence to Gaussian distribution for longer periods.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of the scaling behavior of return distributions across multiple indices and time scales, highlighting the persistence of power-law tails.

Findings

Power-law tails with exponent ~3 for time scales up to 4 days.

Consistent tail behavior observed across different indices.

Slow convergence to Gaussian distribution for longer time scales.

Abstract

We study the distribution of fluctuations over a time scale $\Delta t$ (i.e., the returns) of the S&P 500 index by analyzing three distinct databases. Database (i) contains approximately 1 million records sampled at 1 min intervals for the 13-year period 1984-1996, database (ii) contains 8686 daily records for the 35-year period 1962-1996, and database (iii) contains 852 monthly records for the 71-year period 1926-1996. We compute the probability distributions of returns over a time scale $\Delta t$, where $\Delta t$ varies approximately over a factor of 10^4 - from 1 min up to more than 1 month. We find that the distributions for $\Delta t \leq$ 4 days (1560 mins) are consistent with a power-law asymptotic behavior, characterized by an exponent $\alpha \approx 3$, well outside the stable L\'evy regime $0 < \alpha < 2$. To test the robustness of the S&P result, we perform a parallel analysis on two other financial market indices. Database (iv) contains 3560 daily records of the NIKKEI index for the 14-year period 1984-97, and database (v) contains 4649 daily records of the Hang-Seng index for the 18-year period 1980-97. We find estimates of $\alpha$ consistent with those describing the distribution of S&P 500 daily-returns. One possible reason for the scaling of these distributions is the long persistence of the autocorrelation function of the volatility. For time scales longer than $(\Delta t)_{\times} \approx 4$ days, our results are consistent with slow convergence to Gaussian behavior.