Fragmentation versus Stability in Bimodal Coalitions

TL;DR

This paper examines the dynamics of bimodal coalitions, introducing a new model that explains stability and fragmentation in global and regional political alliances, with implications for policy and international stability.

Contribution

A novel coalition model incorporating local and global alignment, explaining stability and fragmentation phenomena in international relations.

Findings

Existence of a unique stable distribution of actors in two competing world coalitions.

Unstable relationships emerge under a dominant world leadership.

Historical stability of the Cold War organization is explained by the model.

Abstract

Competing bimodal coalitions among a group of actors are discussed. First, a model from political sciences is revisited. Most of the model statements are found not to be contained in the model. Second, a new coalition model is built. It accounts for local versus global alignment with respect to the joining of a coalition. The existence of two competing world coaltions is found to yield one unique stable distribution of actors. On the opposite a unique world leadership allows the emergence of unstable relationships. In parallel to regular actors which have a clear coalition choice, ``neutral" ``frustrated" and ``risky" actors are produced. The cold war organisation after world war II is shown to be rather stable. The emergence of a fragmentation process from eastern group disappearance is explained as well as continuing western group stability. Some hints are obtained about possible policies to stabilize world nation relationships. European construction is analyzed with respect to european stability. Chinese stability is also discussed.