Caustic activation of rain showers
Michael Wilkinson, Bernhard Mehlig, Vlad Bezuglyy

TL;DR
This paper demonstrates that turbulence-induced caustics significantly increase droplet collision rates in clouds, providing a quantitative explanation for rapid rainfall onset without relying on particle clustering.
Contribution
It introduces a theory linking turbulence intensity to droplet collision rates via caustic formation, a novel activated process analogy.
Findings
Collision rate increases abruptly at turbulence threshold
Caustic formation rate follows an exponential dependence on Stokes number
Theory explains rapid rainfall onset in convective clouds
Abstract
We show quantitatively how the collision rate of droplets of visible moisture in turbulent air increases very abruptly as the intensity of the turbulence passes a threshold, due to the formation of fold caustics in their velocity field. The formation of caustics is an activated process, in which a measure of the intensity of the turbulence, termed the Stokes number St, is analogous to temperature in a chemical reaction: the rate of collision contains a factor exp(-C/St). Our results are relevant to the long-standing problem of explaining the rapid onset of rainfall from convecting clouds. Our theory does not involve spatial clustering of particles.
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