Simulation study of spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes as a stick-slip frictional instability

TL;DR

This study uses a spring-block model to numerically analyze earthquake spatio-temporal correlations, revealing a Mogi doughnut-like suppression of small events near future mainshock epicenters.

Contribution

It demonstrates the emergence of Mogi doughnut phenomena in a simplified spring-block earthquake model, linking small event suppression to large earthquake preparation.

Findings

Small event frequency increases before large earthquakes.

Near the epicenter, small events are suppressed just prior to mainshock.

The model reproduces the Mogi doughnut phenomenon.

Abstract

Spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes are studied numerically on the basis of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model. As large events approach, the frequency of smaller events gradually increases, while, just before the mainshock, it is dramatically suppressed in a close vicinity of the epicenter of the upcoming mainshock, a phenomenon closely resembling the ``Mogi doughnut''