The role of clustering and gridlike ordering in epidemic spreading

TL;DR

This paper investigates how clustering and grid-like ordering influence epidemic spread, introducing a novel two-timestep probabilistic approach to quantify the impact of local network structures on epidemic onset.

Contribution

It presents a new method for analyzing epidemic dynamics that accounts for local network topology, especially loops up to length 4, in SIS-type processes.

Findings

Loops up to length 4 significantly affect epidemic onset

Clustering and grid-like orderings modulate spreading efficiency

The two-timestep approach provides a quantitative framework for topological effects

Abstract

The spreading of an epidemic is determined by the connectiviy patterns which underlie the population. While it has been noted that a virus spreads more easily on a network in which global distances are small, it remains a great challenge to find approaches that unravel the precise role of local interconnectedness. Such topological properties enter very naturally in the framework of our two-timestep description, also providing a novel approach to tract a probabilistic system. The method is elaborated for SIS-type epidemic processes, leading to a quantitative interpretation of the role of loops up to length 4 in the onset of an epidemic.