Scale-Dependent Price Fluctuations for the Indian Stock Market

TL;DR

This study investigates the distribution of daily stock returns in India, revealing an exponential decay in price fluctuations that differs from the power-law behavior observed in developed markets, indicating a different universality class.

Contribution

It provides the first analysis of price fluctuation distributions in an emerging economy, showing exponential decay and suggesting a different universality class from developed markets.

Findings

Price fluctuations decay exponentially in the Indian stock market.

Decay scales differ between positive and negative tails.

Indian market exhibits a distinct universality class from developed economies.

Abstract

Classic studies of the probability density of price fluctuations $g$ for stocks and foreign exchanges of several highly developed economies have been interpreted using a {\it power-law} probability density function $P(g) \sim g^{-(\alpha+1)}$ with exponent values $\alpha > 2$, which are outside the L\'evy-stable regime $0 < \alpha < 2$. To test the universality of this relationship for less highly developed economies, we analyze daily returns for the period Nov. 1994--June 2002 for the 49 largest stocks of the National Stock Exchange which has the highest volume of trade in India. We find that $P(g)$ decays as an {\it exponential} function $P(g) \sim \exp(-\beta g)$ with a characteristic decay scales $\beta = 1.51 \pm 0.05$ for the negative tail and $\beta = 1.34 \pm 0.04$ for the positive tail, which is significantly different from that observed for developed economies. Thus we conclude that the Indian stock market may belong to a universality class that differs from those of developed countries analyzed previously.