Assessing Interaction Networks with Applications to Catastrophe Dynamics and Disaster Management

TL;DR

This paper introduces a versatile mathematical method based on the master equation to analyze interaction networks, assess indirect effects, and support decision-making in disaster and epidemic management.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach for evaluating the impact of interventions and failures in complex interaction networks related to catastrophes and epidemics.

Findings

Method effectively models catastrophe dynamics and feedback loops.

Application to epidemic spread demonstrates decision support potential.

Connections to excitable media and supply networks enhance analysis scope.

Abstract

In this paper we present a versatile method for the investigation of interaction networks and show how to use it to assess effects of indirect interactions and feedback loops. The method allows to evaluate the impact of optimization measures or failures on the system. Here, we will apply it to the investigation of catastrophes, in particular to the temporal development of disasters (catastrophe dynamics). The mathematical methods are related to the master equation, which allows the application of well-known solution methods. We will also indicate connections of disaster management with excitable media and supply networks. This facilitates to study the effects of measures taken by the emergency management or the local operation units. With a fictious, but more or less realistic example of a spreading epidemic disease or a wave of influenza, we illustrate how this method can, in principle, provide decision support to the emergency management during such a disaster. Similar considerations may help to assess measures to fight the SARS epidemics, although immunization is presently not possible.