Outbreaks of Hantavirus induced by seasonality

TL;DR

This paper models how seasonal changes in rodent populations can trigger Hantavirus outbreaks, highlighting the importance of seasonal interactions rather than individual seasons alone.

Contribution

It introduces a model demonstrating that seasonal interplay, not single seasons, induces Hantavirus outbreaks, linking climate variations to disease dynamics.

Findings

Seasonal alternation disrupts rodent population equilibrium.

Outbreaks occur only with specific seasonal combinations.

Climate variations influence outbreak timing and severity.

Abstract

Using a model for rodent population dynamics, we study outbreaks of Hantavirus infection induced by the alternation of seasons. Neither season by itself satisfies the environmental requirements for propagation of the disease. This result can be explained in terms of the seasonal interruption of the relaxation process of the mouse population toward equilibrium, and may shed light on the reported connection between climate variations and outbreaks of the dise ase.