Spontaneous coalition forming: Why some are stable?

TL;DR

This paper models the spontaneous formation and instability of international coalitions using spin glass theory, revealing conditions under which alliances stabilize or remain disordered.

Contribution

It introduces a novel spin glass-based model to analyze coalition stability among countries, incorporating historical bonds and fixed interactions.

Findings

Coalitions spontaneously form but are often unstable and disordered.

Macro-level coalitions can stabilize alliances among countries.

The model offers insights into recent European geopolitical instabilities.

Abstract

A model to describe the spontaneous formation of military and economic coalitions among a group of countries is proposed using spin glass theory. Between each couple of countries, there exists a bond exchange coupling which is either zero, cooperative or conflicting. It depends on their common history, specific nature, and cannot be varied. Then, given a frozen random bond distribution, coalitions are found to spontaneously form. However they are also unstable making the system very disordered. Countries shift coalitions all the time. Only the setting of macro extra national coalition are shown to stabilize alliances among countries. The model gives new light on the recent instabilities produced in Eastern Europe by the Warsow pact dissolution at odd to the previous communist stability. Current European stability is also discussed with respect to the European Union construction.