Probabilistic Traffic Flow Breakdown In Stochastic Car Following Models

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates how a stochastic car following model can transition between one-phase and two-phase traffic behaviors by adjusting parameters, providing insights into traffic breakdown probabilities and phase coexistence.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic traffic model capable of exhibiting both single and multiple phases, clarifying the conditions for phase transitions and coexistence.

Findings

Models with two phases show phase coexistence.

Adjusting parameters can eliminate the two-phase behavior.

Stochastic models help predict traffic breakdown probabilities.

Abstract

There is discussion if traffic displays multiple phases (e.g. laminar, jammed, synchronized) or not. This paper presents evidence that a stochastic car following model, by changing one of its parameters, can be moved from showing two phases (laminar and jammed) to showing only one phase. Models with two phases show three states: two being homogeneous states corresponding to each phase, and a third state which consists of a mix between the two phases (phase coexistence). Although the gas-liquid analogy to traffic models has been widely discussed, no traffic-related model ever displayed a completely understood stochastic version of that transition. Having a stochastic model is however important to understand the potentially probabilistic nature of the transition. Most importantly, if indeed 2-phase models describe certain aspects correctly, then this leads to predictions for breakdown probabilities. Alternatively, if 1-phase models describe these aspects better, then there is no breakdown.Interestingly, such 1-phase models can still allow for jam formation on small scales, which may give the impression of having a 2-phase dynamics.