Quantum diffusion of prices and profits

TL;DR

This paper introduces a quantum-inspired model for stock and commodity price movements, suggesting that trader tactics interfere like waves and that market chaos can be understood through quantum mechanics concepts.

Contribution

It proposes a novel quantum mechanical framework to interpret market dynamics, linking trader strategies to wave interference and providing new insights into price fluctuations.

Findings

Trader tactics can interfere as waves, affecting price evolution.

Short-time market behavior resembles quantum interference patterns.

The model offers a new perspective on market chaos and the invisible hand.

Abstract

We discuss the time evolution of quotations of stocks and commodities and show that corrections to the orthodox Bachelier model inspired by quantum mechanical time evolution of particles may be important. Our analysis shows that traders tactics can interfere as waves do and trader's strategies can be reproduced from the corresponding Wigner functions. The proposed interpretation of the chaotic movement of market prices imply that the Bachelier behaviour follows from short-time interference of tactics adopted (paths followed) by the rest of the world considered as a single trader and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck corrections to the Bachelier model should qualitatively matter only for large time scales. The famous smithonian invisible hand is interpreted as a short-time tactics of whole the market considered as a single opponent. We also propose a solution to the currency preference paradox.