The random model for simulation of the growth of small populations

TL;DR

This paper presents a numerical simulation model analyzing the survival probabilities of small populations based on reproductive parameters, revealing conditions that favor persistence or extinction.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic model for population growth that accounts for age structure, fertility, and mobility, providing insights into factors influencing population survival.

Findings

Populations with long reproductive periods and high fertility have higher survival chances.

High mobility and late maturity increase risk of population extinction.

The model's fertility rate aligns with human reproductive data.

Abstract

The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and the high rate of procreation and without social mobility have the most chance to survive. The populations with the late mature age and high mobility dies out. The fertility rate of simple reconstruction of generations obtained in the model (2.8) is close to the value for a human being (2.1).