Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries

TL;DR

This paper discusses modeling human mortality in wealthy countries using Gompertz law, highlighting demographic shifts due to birth rate changes, living conditions, and immigration effects.

Contribution

It introduces simple tools for extrapolating human mortality trends considering recent demographic and social changes.

Findings

Birth rate reductions increase elderly population fraction

Improved living conditions affect mortality patterns

Immigration can stabilize demographic shifts

Abstract

Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic increase in the fraction of old people in the population, and how immigration of half a percent of the population per year can mostly stop this increase.