Electoral surveys influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model

TL;DR

This paper introduces a cellular automata model to study how electoral surveys influence voting behavior, showing their role in opinion stabilization and how manipulation can hinder opposition success.

Contribution

It presents a novel CA model based on social impact theory to simulate electoral dynamics and the effects of survey manipulation on democratic processes.

Findings

Electoral clusters follow power law distributions in size and decision time.

Broadcasted surveys stabilize the status quo and influence opinion formation.

Manipulation within statistical error bars can prevent opposition from gaining power.

Abstract

Nowadays, in societies threatened by atomization, selfishness, short-term thinking, and alienation from political life, there is a renewed debate about classical questions concerning the quality of democratic decision-making. In this work a cellular automata (CA) model for the dynamics of free elections based on the social impact theory is proposed. By using computer simulations, power law distributions for the size of electoral clusters and decision time have been obtained. The major role of broadcasted electoral surveys in guiding opinion formation and stabilizing the ``{\it status quo}'' was demonstrated. Furthermore, it was shown that in societies where these surveys are manipulated within the universally accepted statistical error bars, even a majoritary opposition could be hindered from reaching the power through the electoral path.