Minority Opinion Spreading in Random Geometry

TL;DR

This paper models how minority opinions can spread rapidly and overturn majority views through local discussions in a social landscape, with implications for rumor and fear propagation.

Contribution

It introduces a diffusion reaction model on a random geometric social landscape to simulate minority opinion spreading dynamics.

Findings

Minority opinions can reverse majority views within days.

Local discussions significantly influence opinion shifts.

The model applies to rumor and fear propagation scenarios.

Abstract

The dynamics of spreading of the minority opinion in public debates (a reform proposal, a behavior change, a military retaliation) is studied using a diffusion reaction model. People move by discrete step on a landscape of random geometry shaped by social life (offices, houses, bars, and restaurants). A perfect world is considered with no advantage to the minority. A one person-one argument principle is applied to determine locally individual mind changes. In case of equality, a collective doubt is evoked which in turn favors the Status Quo.Starting from a large in favor of the proposal initial majority, repeated random size local discussions are found to drive the majority reversal along the minority hostile view. Total opinion refusal is completed within few days. Recent national collective issues are revisited. The model may apply to rumor and fear propagation.