A critical review of techniques for Term Structure analysis

TL;DR

This paper critically reviews various techniques for analyzing the term structure of interest rates, highlighting their theoretical foundations and comparing their practical performance through extensive experiments.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive mathematical framework and a comparative assessment of the most widely used term structure analysis methods.

Findings

Identifies strengths and weaknesses of different techniques

Provides insights into the reliability of various approaches

Highlights gaps in theoretical foundations

Abstract

Fixed income markets share many features with the equity markets. However there are significant differences as well and many attempts have been done in the past to develop specific tools which describe (and possibly forecasts) the behavior of such markets. For instance, a correct pricing of fixed income securities with fixed cache flows requires the knowledge of the {\it term structure} of interest rates. A number of techniques have been proposed for estimating and interpreting the term structure, yet solid theoretical foundations and a comparative assessment of the results produced by these techniques are not available. In this paper we define the fundamental concepts with a mathematical terminology. Besides that, we report about an extensive set of experiments whose scope is to point out the strong and weak points of the most widely used approaches in this field.