# Planet-compatible pathways for transitioning the chemical industry

## TL;DR

This paper proposes seven pathways to transform the chemical industry into a sustainable, net-zero system by 2050, using circular strategies and reducing emissions.

## Contribution

The study introduces seven planet-compatible pathways for the chemical industry, combining demand- and supply-side interventions to achieve net-zero emissions.

## Key findings

- Seven pathways could reduce global chemical demand by 23-33% through resource efficiency and circularity.
- Replacing fossil feedstocks and electrifying production could enable 0.5 GtCO2eq y−1 net negative emissions.
- The pathways require US$1.2–3.7 trillion in cumulative investment by 2050.

## Abstract

The chemical industry underpins modern society across manufactured goods, food production and energy security via the production of plastics, solvents, fertilizers and more. However, it simultaneously presents multiple threats to the planetary boundaries that will undermine the industry's license to operate, requiring major and rapid system transformation. Our study presents seven planet-compatible pathways for transitioning the industry towards net-zero, employing both demand- and supply-side interventions to chemicals representing over 70% of the sector’s emissions. The pathways rely on circular strategies and suggest that the chemical industry has the option to become a carbon steward ultimately providing much-needed negative emissions to society. Imminent action and implementation are required globally to enable this radical transformation and unlock the presented pathways.

Chemical products, such as plastics, solvents, and fertilizers, are essential for supporting modern lifestyles. Yet, producing, using, and disposing of chemicals creates adverse environmental impacts which threaten the industry’s license to operate. This study presents seven planet-compatible pathways toward 2050 employing demand-side and supply-side interventions with cumulative total investment costs of US$1.2–3.7 trillion. Resource efficiency and circularity interventions reduce global chemicals demand by 23 to 33% and are critical for mitigating risks associated with using fossil feedstocks and carbon capture and sequestration, and constraints on available biogenic and recyclate feedstocks. Replacing fossil feedstocks with biogenic/air-capture sources, shifting carbon destinations from the atmosphere to ground, and electrifying/decarbonizing energy supply for production technologies could enable net negative emissions of 0.5 GtCO2eq y−1 across non-ammonia chemicals, while still delivering essential chemical-based services to society.