# Assessing the ecological niche and invasion potential of the Asian giant hornet

## TL;DR

The Asian giant hornet could spread widely in western North America due to suitable climate and human activity, requiring urgent monitoring and control.

## Contribution

This study uses habitat models and dispersal simulations to predict the invasive potential of the Asian giant hornet in North America.

## Key findings

- Asian giant hornets are likely to establish in areas with warm to cool temperatures, high precipitation, and human activity.
- Introduced populations have a smaller realized niche than native ones, suggesting potential for broader spread.
- Dispersal simulations indicate rapid spread across western North America without containment.

## Abstract

The Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) was recently detected in western British Columbia, Canada and Washington State, United States. V. mandarinia are an invasion concern due to their ability to kill honey bees and affect humans. Here, we used habitat suitability models and dispersal simulations to assess potential invasive spread of V. mandarinia. We show V. mandarinia are most likely to establish in areas with warm to cool annual mean temperature, high precipitation, and high human activity. The realized niche of introduced populations is small compared to native populations, suggesting introduced populations could spread into habitats across a broader range of environmental conditions. Dispersal simulations also show that V. mandarinia could rapidly spread throughout western North America without containment. Given its potential negative impacts and capacity for spread, extensive monitoring and eradication efforts throughout western North America are warranted.