# The tip of the iceberg: high-risk contacts for hemorrhagic fevers of swine in the Caribbean

## TL;DR

This paper explores how animal trade data and local expertise can improve understanding of swine fever transmission risks in the Caribbean.

## Contribution

The study introduces a participatory modeling approach to enhance trade data and assess transmission risks for swine fevers in the Caribbean.

## Key findings

- Participatory input significantly expanded the connectivity of pig and pork trade networks in the Caribbean.
- The Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago were central exporters of pork products.
- Local expertise is crucial for filling data gaps and improving risk assessment for swine fevers.

## Abstract

There are major gaps in understanding the transmission risk of hemorrhagic fevers of swine, such as African swine fever (ASF) and classical swine fever (CSF), in the Caribbean because animal-trade data are limited and fragmented. To address this gap, we reconstructed country-level directed trade networks from United Nations Comtrade data for 2022–2024 merged with participant input and analyzed them using social network analysis; nodes represent Caribbean jurisdictions with at least one trade tie, and edges represent reported movements of live pigs or pork products. Using these baselines, we conducted a participatory modeling exercise with 15 veterinary and agricultural officers from 10 Caribbean countries and territories during a regional ASF preparedness workshop in Saint Kitts. Network metrics were estimated for both pig and pork trade networks. Participatory input markedly expanded connectivity: for live pigs, the UN Comtrade network contained 6 edges and experts added 12 (18 total; 67% new). For pork products, the preliminary network contained 58 edges; participants added 42, bringing the total to 100 (42% new). The pork product network’s most central exporters by out-degree were the Dominican Republic (13) and Trinidad and Tobago (12); the median out-degree was 3. The live-pig network remained sparse, with isolated sub-graphs. Despite a median out-degree of 1 across the live-pig network, Saint Kitts and Nevis led exports (out-degree 5), with pig movements to Montserrat, Sint Eustatius, Sint Maarten, Anguilla, and Antigua and Barbuda. These findings show that participatory approaches with local expertise fill data gaps, enhance preparedness, and support risk assessment.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13567-026-01719-9.