# Nomogram prediction model for prognosis of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

## TL;DR

This study identifies key factors affecting survival in ALS patients and builds a predictive model to estimate prognosis.

## Contribution

A novel nomogram model is developed using clinical and biological factors to predict survival in sporadic ALS.

## Key findings

- Ferritin, creatinine, disease duration, age at onset, and BMI are independent predictors of survival in ALS.
- The nomogram model was validated for accuracy using ROC and correction curve analyses.
- The model may assist in prognostic evaluation of ALS patients.

## Abstract

To analyze the factors affecting prognosis of patients with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), to establish a nomogram predictive model.

A total of 236 patients with sporadic ALS hospitalized in the Department of Neurology of the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital, from March 2011 to November 2021 were enrolled in the study. Basic information and clinical and laboratory data of patients were collected, including sex, age at onset, body mass index, disease duration, diagnostic grade, and serum levels of creatine kinase (CK), creatinine (Cr), uric acid (UA), and ferritin. Kaplan-Meier univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the prognostic factors, and a nomogram predictive model was established.

Univariate analysis showed that ferritin, CK, Cr, age at onset, disease duration, and body mass index (BMI) were all correlated with prognosis of ALS. Multivariate analysis showed that ferritin, Cr, disease duration, age at onset, and BMI were the strongest predictors. ROC curve and correction curve analyses verified the accuracy of the nomogram prediction model.

Ferritin, Cr, disease duration, age at onset, and BMI are independent predictors of survival in patients with ALS. Based on these clinical and biological prognostic factors, we established a quantitative model for predicting survival probability, and may assist in the prognostic evaluation of ALS, pending further validation.