# Large future genetic diversity losses are predicted from conservation indicators even with habitat protection

## TL;DR

The study predicts significant future losses in genetic diversity across species, even with habitat protection, using conservation indicators and genomic data.

## Contribution

A spatiotemporal predictive framework calibrated with genomic data from 29 species to estimate and forecast genetic diversity losses.

## Key findings

- Species have already lost 1 to 13% of π genetic diversity based on historical data.
- Future genetic diversity losses of 6 to 45% are predicted even if habitats and populations stabilize.
- Genetic diversity losses lag behind population and habitat declines, making monitoring ineffective until major losses occur.

## Abstract

Genetic diversity is crucial for both species adaptation and survival. Recently, it has been included as a target for protection in the United Nations’ Global Biodiversity Framework. However, we lack scalable predictive methods to quantify current and future losses of genetic diversity across species. Here, we develop a spatiotemporal predictive framework calibrated with high-quality genome-wide data from 29 plant and animal species to quantify genetic biodiversity at global scales. Our model predicts genetic diversity may have already declined beyond the preliminary UN targets of maintaining 90% of species’ genetic diversity and will continue declining over time, even with habitat protection.

Genetic diversity within species underpins evolutionary adaptation and has recently been included as a target for protection in the United Nations’ Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). Yet, we lack mathematical tools to estimate past genetic diversity loss across species—or predict future losses—based on demographic proxies used in conversation policy. To fill this gap, we developed a spatiotemporal framework to predict the dynamics of genetic diversity under realistic habitat change scenarios, calibrated with population-scale genomic data from 29 plant and animal species. To estimate how much genetic diversity has already been lost, we analyzed habitat area and population size losses for 4,611 species from the last five decades, using data from the Living Planet Index, the Red List, and new GBF indicators. We estimate that species have already lost 1 to 13% of π genetic diversity. Furthermore, we predict that genetic diversity losses lag behind population and habitat area declines, such that an average of 6 to 45% of genetic diversity will be lost under different scenarios even if population sizes or habitats do not decline further. Our results highlight that safeguarding existing habitats is insufficient to maintain the genetic health of species, and that genetic monitoring from proxy indicators will only detect major genetic diversity losses after it is already too late.