# The temporal protection and declining health of the COVID-19 vaccinated in England: A 26-month comparison of the mortality involving and not involving COVID-19 among vaccinated vs. unvaccinated

## TL;DR

The study compares mortality rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated people in England over 26 months, finding temporary protection from vaccination but higher non-COVID mortality later.

## Contribution

A novel approach to compare vaccinated and unvaccinated groups by analyzing all-cause and non-COVID mortality differences over time.

## Key findings

- All-cause mortality was initially higher in unvaccinated individuals but showed similar patterns for non-COVID mortality.
- Vaccinated individuals experienced significant protection between July 2021 and January 2022.
- Later, vaccinated individuals had a relative increase in non-COVID mortality compared to unvaccinated individuals.

## Abstract

Comparing non-randomized groups, such as COVID-19 vaccinated and unvaccinated, even in the presence of seemingly relevant control variables, is challenging, but in this study, using English data, I show an achievable approach.

First, I estimated age-standardized all-cause mortality among COVID-19 vaccinated and unvaccinated ten years and older, covering a 26-month period from Apr 21 to May 23. Then, I estimated mortality not involving COVID-19, and finally, I differentiated the calculations.

First, I found that all-cause mortality among COVID-19 unvaccinated was higher than among vaccinated. But as the pattern was similar concerning mortality not involving COVID-19, the discrepancy is attributed mainly to unvaccinated having inferior health at the outset. There was nonetheless significant protection for vaccinated between July 21 and Jan 22. Absent of control variables as a means to compare non-randomized groups, I reached that finding by differentiating all-cause mortality from mortality not involving COVID-19. However, while mortality not involving COVID-19 decreased among unvaccinated compared to the first observation month, it was high among vaccinated, i.e., a relative increase in mortality among vaccinated.

An interpretation is that vaccination, despite temporary protection, increased mortality. Strengthening the interpretation was relatively high mortality among vaccinated not involving COVID-19 counterintuitively following periods of excess mortality. Further strengthening the interpretation was relatively high mortality not involving COVID-19 among vaccinated corresponding with the excess mortality during the same period.