Emergence of microbial host dormancy during a persistent virus epidemic
Jochen Blath, András Tóbiás
TL;DR
This paper explores how a microbial host can evolve dormancy to survive a persistent virus epidemic, despite the cost of reduced reproduction.
Contribution
The study introduces a novel dormancy trait in a stochastic model and shows its potential to invade a population under a virus epidemic.
Findings
Dormancy can allow mutants to invade a resident population despite lower reproduction rates.
The success probability and time to reach macroscopic population size are characterized.
Post-invasion outcomes include coexistence or extinction of resident hosts.
Abstract
We study a minimal stochastic individual-based model for a microbial population challenged by a persistent (lytic) virus epidemic. We focus on the situation in which the resident microbial host population and the virus population are in stable coexistence upon arrival of a single new “mutant” host individual. We assume that this mutant is capable of switching to a reversible state of dormancy upon contact with virions as a means of avoiding infection by the virus. At the same time, we assume that this new dormancy trait comes with a cost, namely a reduced individual reproduction rate. We prove that there is a non-trivial range of parameters where the mutants can nevertheless invade the resident population with strictly positive probability (bounded away from 0) in the large population limit. Given the reduced reproductive rate, such an invasion would be impossible in the absence of…
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Taxonomy
TopicsEvolution and Genetic Dynamics · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models