# Assessing the invasive risk of Rhinotermitidae in China under current and future global warming scenarios using the MaxEnt model

## TL;DR

This study uses climate data and a MaxEnt model to predict how termite species in China may spread under current and future warming scenarios, highlighting risks to ecosystems and infrastructure.

## Contribution

The study introduces a novel application of the MaxEnt model to assess the invasive risk of Rhinotermitidae termites in China under global warming scenarios.

## Key findings

- Coptotermes is mainly found in southern China, while Reticulitermes is also present in the Qinling Mountains.
- Annual mean temperature strongly influences Coptotermes distribution, while Reticulitermes is affected by temperature range and dry-season precipitation.
- Future warming is expected to expand termite risk areas northward, threatening infrastructure and agriculture.

## Abstract

Biodiversity and distribution patterns are essential components for ecological and biogeographical research. The family Rhinotermitidae (sensu lato; Coptotermes and Reticulitermes) is among the most detrimental and widespread termites in China, causing severe damage to the ecosystem. However, their geographical distribution patterns and species richness hotspots are little comprehended, posing substantial challenges for successful management and control initiatives. After cleaning, along with bioclimatic variables, we uploaded 215 occurrence records for Coptotermes and 184 for Reticulitermes to the MaxEnt model to forecast their risk habitats during the Current (1970–2000) period and under prospective global warming scenarios.

We found that Coptotermes are mainly distributed in southern China, while Reticulitermes are primarily found in southern China and the Qinling Mountains. The hotspots of Coptotermes are primarily located in Guangdong Province, while those of Reticulitermes are located in Hubei and Guangdong Provinces. Annual mean temperature (Bio1; 73.2%) is mainly responsible for the distribution of Coptotermes in China, while mean diurnal range (Bio2; 31%) and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17; 31.4%) are mainly affecting the distribution of Reticulitermes. The MaxEnt model exhibited outstanding performance for Coptotermes (AUC 0.955; TSS 0.808) and Reticulitermes (AUC 0.944; TSS 0.732). Under climate scenarios from 1970 to 2000, the total risk areas of Coptotermes and Reticulitermes were 0.73 million km2 and 2.25 million km2, respectively. Under SSP2-4.5 scenarios, areas classified as negligible-, moderate-, and high-risk are expected to expand and shift towards northern China in the future, leading to a rise in Rhinotermitidae (sensu lato) population size. Therefore, it indicates a serious threat to infrastructure, crops, and agricultural systems.

This research enhances our knowledge about the present geographic distribution and species richness hotspots of Coptotermes and Reticulitermes in China and the potential impact of future global warming on their distribution and shift towards novel habitats in southern and northern China. Therefore, this study aids in the implementation of control and early prevention strategies in high-risk regions.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-026-00600-x.