# Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Rural Eastern Cape, South Africa: Clinical, Bacteriological, and Programmatic Predictors of Poor Treatment Outcomes

## TL;DR

This study examines the causes and outcomes of drug-resistant tuberculosis in rural South Africa, finding that prior treatment and high bacterial load are key factors.

## Contribution

The study identifies prior TB treatment and culture positivity as strong predictors of MDR-TB in a rural South African district.

## Key findings

- MDR-TB prevalence was 10.7% in the study district.
- Prior TB treatment was strongly associated with MDR-TB (aOR 4.45).
- Culture positivity was a strong independent predictor of MDR-TB (aOR 27.71).

## Abstract

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB), particularly multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), remains a significant public health challenge in rural South Africa, where diagnostic and treatment infrastructure is limited. This study aimed to assess resistance patterns, bacillary load, treatment outcomes, and predictors of MDR-TB in the O.R. Tambo District of the Eastern Cape Province. Although isoniazid monoresistant TB (Hr-TB) was identified, its analysis was descriptive due to the limited sample size. A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted on bacteriologically confirmed TB cases (n = 477) diagnosed between 2020 and 2022. The data collected included demographic and clinical variables, smear and culture results, resistance patterns, and treatment outcomes. Drug resistance was categorized as MDR-TB, Hr-TB, or fully susceptible. Outcomes were classified as favorable, unfavorable, lost to follow-up, or ongoing. Logistic regression identified predictors of MDR-TB. DR-TB prevalence was 11.3% (n = 54), with MDR-TB accounting for 10.7% (n = 51) and Hr-TB for 0.6% (n = 3). Prior TB treatment was significantly associated with MDR-TB (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.45, 95% CI: 1.89–10.48). Smear positivity was associated with MDR-TB in univariate analysis (OR 5.0), although its effect diminished in multivariable analysis (aOR 0.40, 95% CI: 0.12–1.36), suggesting confounding by bacillary load. Culture positivity was a strong independent predictor (aOR 27.71, 95% CI: 8.84–86.85), indicating a higher mycobacterial burden among MDR-TB cases. MDR-TB patients had significantly poorer treatment outcomes, with a high rate of unfavorable outcomes and loss to follow-up. MDR-TB dominates the resistance landscape in this rural district, primarily driven by prior treatment and high bacillary loads. The study highlights the need for targeted interventions, including enhanced diagnostic capacity, improved clinical governance, and community-based support systems, to optimize the detection and management of MDR-TB.