# Future Basal Stem Rot, Oil Palm Mortality and Climate Scenarios for Oil Palm Compared to Climate Scenarios for Alternative Crops

## TL;DR

This paper compares future climate suitability for oil palm and alternative crops like soybean, finding that soybean may be a better option in some regions due to climate change and disease threats.

## Contribution

The study uniquely compares climate suitability of oil palm with alternative crops using CLIMEX modeling to assess future viability.

## Key findings

- Soybean has higher climate suitability than oil palm in many regions.
- Oil palm's suitable climate area is projected to decline significantly by 2070 in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
- Maize is a rare alternative, while common bean is not viable as a replacement for oil palm.

## Abstract

Modifying food systems is required when they are threatened by a changing climate. Oil palm (OP) is a very important crop and climate change (CC) may decrease the areas in which OP can grow, as indicated by CLIMEX modelling. OP is affected by basal stem rot (BSR) and increasing incidences are indicated. Palm oil is used in many foods and biodiesel; Indonesia and Malaysia produce the largest volumes of the commodity. CLIMEX modelling of future suitable climates have also been applied to soybean, maize and the common bean (CB). The data for these crops were compared to those for OP in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in the current paper to determine if growing the crops in the same regions in which OP is grown is possible in the future. Soybean had higher areas of suitable climate compared to OP. BSR and OP mortality further disadvantaged OP. The suitable climate for OP decreased significantly in Thailand by 2050 and in areas of Indonesia and Malaysia by 2070; the equivalent areas for soybean remained at high suitability. OP climate suitability further declined by 2100 in these and some other regions. Soybean could usefully be grown to diversify from the OP monoculture in many cases. Maize could be a possible alternative infrequently and the CB does not appear to be a viable alternative. These comparisons are unique and the methods could be employed in other systems.