Replacement and Revision Hip and Knee Surgery Projections up to the Year 2060: An Analysis Based on Data from the Romanian Arthroplasty Register

TL;DR

This study projects a significant rise in hip and knee replacement surgeries in Romania by 2060, especially among those aged 80 and older.

Contribution

The study provides detailed projections of arthroplasty surgery volumes in Romania up to 2060, stratified by age and sex.

Findings

Primary hip replacement surgeries are projected to increase by 40.14% by 2060.

Primary knee replacement surgeries are expected to rise by 79.78% by 2060.

The largest growth is expected in patients aged ≥80 years for all procedure types.

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Hip and knee replacement joint surgeries are experiencing constant growth, and anticipating future needs allows decision-makers and stakeholders involved in the healthcare system to allocate the necessary resources for safe and effective services. The objective of this study is to estimate the volumes of primary and revision hip and knee surgeries expected to be performed in Romania by 2060. Materials and Methods: We used data from the Romanian Arthroplasty Register regarding the total volume of primary hip replacement surgery (cumulative n = 51,252 across five years), hip revision surgery (cumulative n = 3579), primary knee replacement surgery (cumulative n = 32,283), and knee revision surgery (cumulative n = 943) performed in 2017–2019, 2023 and 2024—the last five years of complete registrations, excluding the pandemic period. We projected future numbers of hip and knee primary and revision surgeries using the arithmetic mean of annual procedure rates observed during the study period, combined with the average annual trend in these rates. Projections were stratified by age group (0–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79, and ≥80 years) and sex and were applied to population forecasts from the National Institute of Statistics of Romania up to 2060. Results: By 2060, primary hip replacement surgery volumes will increase by 40.14% relative to 2024 levels (from 13,526 in 2024 to 18,965 in 2060), and primary knee replacement surgery volumes will increase by 79.78% (from 9003 in 2024 to 16,186 in 2060). Revision hip surgery volumes will increase by 42.02% (from 759 in 2024 to 1078 in 2060), and revision knee surgery volumes will increase by 109.25% (from 227 in 2024 to 475 in 2060). The largest relative increases are concentrated in patients aged ≥80 years, with projected growth substantially exceeding those in younger age groups across all procedure types and both sexes. These percentages represent the projected growth in procedure volumes for this age group compared with 2024 baseline volumes. Conclusions: By 2060, we project substantial increases in all arthroplasty procedure types in Romania, with the most pronounced growth among patients aged ≥80 years. Given that resource utilization and morbidity are higher in this population, the increased demand for medical interventions requires advance planning, which will have significant implications for the healthcare system.

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