Dynamic Assessment of Modified EASIX (m-EASIX) at 48 Hours Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis: A Propensity Score-Matched Study

TL;DR

A new method called m-EASIX, measured 48 hours after hospital admission, helps predict which acute pancreatitis patients are at higher risk for complications.

Contribution

Dynamic 48-hour m-EASIX assessment improves early risk stratification in acute pancreatitis compared to existing scores.

Findings

48-hour m-EASIX was independently associated with adverse outcomes in both unmatched and matched cohorts.

m-EASIX outperformed BISAP and Ranson scores in predicting adverse outcomes (AUC up to 0.867).

m-EASIX identified low-risk patients by BISAP who later developed complications.

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Early risk stratification in acute pancreatitis (AP) remains challenging, particularly for identifying patients who initially appear low-risk but later develop complications. The Modified Endothelial Activation and Stress Index (m-EASIX) reflects endothelial injury and systemic inflammation. This study evaluated the prognostic value of dynamic 48 h m-EASIX assessment for predicting adverse clinical outcomes in AP. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study included adult patients hospitalized with AP between January 2020 and June 2025. Propensity score matching (1:1) was performed using age, sex, BISAP score and etiology. Laboratory parameters were recorded at admission and at 48 h. Adverse outcomes were defined as prolonged hospitalization (≥8 days) and/or pancreatic necrosis, abscess, intensive care unit admission or in-hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of adverse outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis evaluated the predictive performance of m-EASIX and compared it with BISAP and Ranson scores. Results: A total of 258 patients were included in the initial cohort, of whom 93 experienced an adverse clinical course. After propensity score matching, 170 patients remained in the final analysis (85 per group). The 48 h m-EASIX score was independently associated with adverse outcomes in both unmatched and matched cohorts. ROC analysis showed a moderate discrimination for composite outcomes (AUC ≈ 0.76) and a stronger discrimination for hard outcomes (AUC up to 0.867). In all analyses, m-EASIX significantly outperformed BISAP and Ranson scores (DeLong test p < 0.001). Dynamic risk reclassification showed that m-EASIX identified a subgroup of patients initially classified as low-risk by BISAP who later developed adverse outcomes. Conclusions: The dynamic assessment of m-EASIX at 48 h provides additional prognostic information for early risk stratification in AP and may help identify patients at an increased risk of unfavorable clinical courses.

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