# Potential for Distribution Expansion of Stephanitis chinensis in China Based on MaxEnt Model

## TL;DR

This study predicts how climate change will expand the habitat of the tea lace bug in China, helping to prepare for its spread and protect tea crops.

## Contribution

The study identifies key climate factors and predicts future distribution shifts of the tea lace bug using the MaxEnt model.

## Key findings

- The tea lace bug's suitable habitats are currently concentrated in East and South Asia, covering 28.58% of China's land area.
- Future climate change will cause the bug's distribution to expand northward and shift northeastward in China.
- Key environmental factors influencing its distribution include precipitation and temperature variables like Bio18, Bio6, Bio12, and Bio4.

## Abstract

Stephanitis chinensis (tea lace bug) is a major pest in China’s southwest tea region, with recent outbreaks severely impacting the profitability of spring tea. To clarify its distribution dynamics under current and future climate change, this study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to predict its distribution and dominant environmental factors. The results show that the key factors are Bio18, Bio6, Bio12, and Bio4. Currently, this species’ suitable habitats are mainly in East and South Asia. In China, suitable habitats account for 28.58% of the total area, with high-suitability regions concentrated in the Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu provinces. Future climate conditions will expand its distribution northward, with the center shifting northeastward. This study provides a basis for monitoring and controlling high-risk regions to ensure tea production safety.

The tea lace bug, Stephanitis chinensis, is an important pest in the southwest tea region in China. It has recently emerged in some parts of the tea areas, severely impacting the profitability of spring tea. To clarify the distribution dynamics of S. chinensis under current and future climate change, this study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to predict the distribution and dominant environmental factors of S. chinensis. The results show that the mean precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), annual precipitation (Bio12), and the variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4) are the dominant environmental factors affecting S. chinensis distribution. Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable habitats for S. chinensis are mainly distributed in East and South Asia, with only a small distribution in southern Europe, southeastern North America, and coastal areas of southeastern South America; the highly suitable habitats are primarily distributed in China, southern Japan, and southern South Korea. The total suitable area of S. chinensis accounts for approximately 28.58% of China’s land area. The high-suitability regions are primarily concentrated in the Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu provinces. Under future climate conditions, the total suitable area of S. chinensis will increase to varying degrees, primarily expanding northward, with the extension of high-suitability areas mainly concentrated in Hubei, Anhui, and Henan. The migration distance of the geographical distribution center ranges between 32.27 km and 96.13 km, with a primary shift toward the northeast. This study predicts potential suitable areas for the tea lace bug under different climate change scenarios. Specifically, regions at the highest risk, such as the Hubei, Anhui, and Henan provinces, should enhance monitoring and early warning systems and implement timely prevention and control measures to ensure the safe production of tea.