Food Security–Climate Change–National Income Nexus: Insights from GCC Countries

TL;DR

This study explores how climate change and national income affect food security in GCC countries, finding that income boosts food security while emissions reduce it.

Contribution

The study introduces Bayesian mixed-effects models with MCMC methods to analyze food security in GCC countries.

Findings

Gross national income positively influences food security in GCC countries.

Energy-related carbon emissions negatively impact food security.

A long-term cointegrating relationship exists between food security, climate factors, and income.

Abstract

Food security is being experienced particularly deeply in vulnerable regions that are impacted by climate change. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of climate change and gross national income on food security in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study utilized cross-country panel data for GCC countries from 2000 to 2024, with food access acting as the dependent variable for food security. The annual meteorological temperature, energy-related carbon emissions, and gross national income are involved as independent variables representing the factors of climate change and economic growth, respectively. The Pedroni and Johansen–Fisher panel cointegration tests were implemented. Furthermore, the study employs Bayesian random-effects (BRE) and Bayesian mixed-effects (BME) models, estimated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, for achieving posterior distributions of the model’s parameters. The results confirm the existence of a long-term cointegrating relationship among the selected variables. Gross national income has a positive impact on food security, whereas carbon emissions exert a negative effect. The findings reveal that food security is shaped by interconnected economic and climate factors, with notable differences between countries. These results underline the importance of regional cooperation and country-specific policies that focus on enhancing income, mitigating emissions, and investing in food systems.

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