# Prognostic Scoring Systems for Burns: A Comparative Analysis of Their Predictive Accuracies for Mortality in Burn Patients

## TL;DR

This study compares different scoring systems to predict mortality in burn patients and finds that BABSI and ABSI are the most accurate.

## Contribution

The study provides a comparative analysis of burn mortality prediction tools, identifying BABSI and ABSI as the most effective.

## Key findings

- BABSI and ABSI showed excellent predictive accuracy for mortality (AUC = 0.963 and 0.952, respectively).
- ASA had good discrimination but poor calibration for mortality prediction.
- CCI and mFI-5 had fair predictive accuracy compared to BABSI and ABSI.

## Abstract

Introduction: Various scoring systems are applied to burn patients to assess the perioperative and mortality risks as well as comorbidities. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive accuracies for mortality of different scoring systems: the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Bogenhausen ABSI (BABSI), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and modified Frailty Index-5 (mFI-5). Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 644 burn patients treated at one burn center between September 2018 and May 2022. Results: Median scores were 5 (range: 1–16), 5 (range: 2–17.5), 2 (range: 1–5), 0 (range: 0–14) and 0 (range: 0–5) for the ABSI, BABSI, ASA, CCI and mFI-5, respectively. Significantly different median score results were observed between survivors and non-survivors: ABSI: 5 vs. 10; BABSI: 5 vs. 10.5; ASA: 2 vs. 4; CCI: 0 vs. 5; and mFI-5: 0 vs. 2 (p < 0.001 for all scores). Predictive accuracies were excellent for the BABSI (AUC = 0.963), ABSI (AUC = 0.952), and ASA (AUC = 0.916), whereas fair predictive accuracies were found for the CCI (AUC = 0.851) and mFI-5 (AUC = 0.760). Good calibration was observed for the BABSI, ABSI, CCI, and mFI-5, whereas calibration was poor for the ASA. Conclusion: All five scores significantly differentiate between survivors and non-survivors. However, the strongest discriminatory power and best calibration for mortality prediction were observed for the BABSI and ABSI scores. Therefore, the application of both scores is recommended in daily routine.