# Impacts of Climate Change and Inter-Specific Competition on the Spatial Distribution of Elliot’s Pheasant (Syrmaticus ellioti, Swinhoe, 1872) in Huzhou City, China

## TL;DR

This study shows how climate change and competition from other species threaten the survival of Elliot’s Pheasant in Huzhou, China, and suggests habitat preservation and corridors as solutions.

## Contribution

The study provides new insights into the combined effects of climate change and competition on the endangered Elliot’s Pheasant’s habitat.

## Key findings

- Elliot’s Pheasant is restricted to mid-mountain forests and faces intense competition from sympatric species.
- Climate projections show an 84.6% habitat loss for Elliot’s Pheasant by 2050.
- Niche overlap with Silver and Koklass Pheasants indicates significant competitive pressure.

## Abstract

Ground-dwelling pheasants are essential indicators of forest health, yet they face increasing threats from environmental instability. This study utilized city-wide infrared camera monitoring to assess the spatial ecology and competitive dynamics of the endangered Elliot’s Pheasant in Huzhou, China. Our analysis identifies the species as a climate-sensitive specialist, restricted by specific thermal requirements and facing intense competitive exclusion from more resilient sympatric neighbors. Projections for 2050 indicate a catastrophic 84.6% habitat loss and significant range shifts due to warming. These findings highlight a critical population bottleneck. To ensure long-term persistence, we advocate for the preservation of mid-elevation micro-habitats and the strategic implementation of ecological corridors to facilitate climate-driven migration and maintain regional biodiversity.

Ground-dwelling pheasants are vital indicators of forest ecosystem health. Understanding their distribution and response to climate change is crucial for regional biodiversity conservation. Based on 97,000 camera-days of infrared monitoring from 2019 to 2022 in Huzhou, China, we analyzed the spatial patterns and niche overlap of five pheasant species, including the first class national protected animal Elliot’s Pheasant (Syrmaticus ellioti), using MaxEnt modeling and Schoener’s D index. Results showed the following: (1) Pheasants in Huzhou exhibited distinct vertical gradients, with Elliot’s Pheasant restricted primarily to mid-mountain forests (200–600 m) in western Anji. (2) Iso-thermality and winter thermal limits were the primary drivers of its distribution. (3) Niche analysis revealed intense competitive pressure; Elliot’s Pheasant habitat was largely encompassed by dominant species like the Silver Pheasant (Lophura nycthemera), showing a high overlap (D = 0.642) with the Koklass Pheasant (Pucrasia macrolopha). (4) By 2050, its suitable habitat is projected to shrink by 84.6% (from 1085.7 to 118.8 km2) and shift eastward. These findings highlight the high climate sensitivity and competitive vulnerability of Elliot’s Pheasant. We recommend prioritizing micro-habitat maintenance in mid-mountain zones and proactively establishing ecological corridors between Anji and Deqing to mitigate habitat loss and displacement.