Dynamic linkages between chicken meat production, consumption, income and trade: Evidence from Wavelet coherence and Granger causality in Asia

TL;DR

This study explores how chicken meat production in Asia is linked to consumption, income, and trade over 30 years.

Contribution

The study introduces novel insights on causal relationships using Wavelet coherence and Granger causality.

Findings

Chicken consumption and GDP show strong links to production in Asia.

Trade openness drives chicken meat production in most Asian countries.

Chicken production influences GDP and consumption in a unidirectional manner.

Abstract

The poultry industry has become one of the fastest-growing agricultural sectors in Asia, driven by rising incomes, and shifting food preferences. Therefore, this study aims to examine the relationship between chicken meat production and key determinants, including chicken meat consumption, gross domestic product, and trade openness, over 30 years (1993-2022) across 28 Asian countries. This study's foundation was based on the theories of consumer demand and international trade. Wavelet coherence and Granger causality analysis were utilised to identify the direction of causality of the variables. The Wavelet results reveal that chicken consumption and GDP become most significant with the production in the Asian continent, while Granger results reveal that most Asian countries showed unidirectional causal flows from trade openness to chicken meat production and from chicken meat production to gross domestic product and consumption. Furthermore, this study provides novel insights that inform policy considerations for policymakers, international and domestic organisations, and governments, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations.

Figures