Evaluating the impact of NHS strikes on patient flow through emergency departments

TL;DR

This study examines how NHS strikes affected patient flow in emergency departments, finding faster admissions during strike days.

Contribution

The study provides empirical evidence on the impact of NHS strikes on emergency department patient flow.

Findings

Junior doctor and consultant strikes were associated with faster patient admission times in type 1 EDs.

The improved flow during strikes may be due to postponed elective care creating more inpatient capacity.

The effect was only observed in smaller type 2 EDs during consultant strikes.

Abstract

Since December 2022, the National Health Service (NHS) has experienced large-scale strikes by staff. The NHS cancels approximately 12 million elective care appointments each year, and around 1 million elective appointments were cancelled due to strikes between 2022 and 2024. During strikes, emergency care is prioritised, and it has been claimed that emergency departments (EDs) run ‘better than usual’. The aim of this study was to investigate changes in patient flow into hospitals through the ED during the strike periods.

Cox proportional hazards modelling was applied to data from two different EDs in the north-west of England to model time between patient arrival at the ED and their subsequent admission. Systematic (linear temporal trend, yearly seasonality, daily seasonality, weekends, ED ‘heat’) and patient/presentation-level factors (urgency, service referred to, patient age, ethnicity and gender) were controlled for. The impact of different striking professions on patient time to admission was investigated using HRs, where a higher HR indicated faster admission.

Over the analysis period, we observed 61 separate strike days: 40 junior doctor strike days, 11 nursing days, 10 consultant days and 7 ambulance days. Junior doctor and consultant strikes coincided on 4 days. For the type 1 ED, median time to see a clinician was similar on strike and non-strike days (median 2 hours 27 min on strike days (IQR: 1 hour 2 min to 4 hours 53 min), 2 hours 27 min on non-strike days (IQR: 1 hour 5 min to 5 hours 14 min)). Patients were admitted through the ED more quickly on both the junior doctor and consultant strike days compared with non-strike days (HRs: 1.12, 1.28, both p≤0.001). This increased flow was only seen while consultants were striking in the type 2 smaller ED.

These findings suggest that the improved patient flow observed on strike days could be driven by the additional inpatient capacity created through the postponement of elective care. This result indicates that NHS hospital systems could potentially be adjusted to enhance turnaround times and reduce ED crowding.

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