Global Burden of Type 2 Diabetes Attributable to Behavioral Risks: Insights and Projections to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

TL;DR

This study shows that behavioral risks are increasingly causing Type 2 diabetes worldwide, with projections indicating continued growth through 2050.

Contribution

The study provides new global projections of Type 2 diabetes burden attributable to behavioral risks up to 2050 using Bayesian modeling.

Findings

Global deaths and DALYs from Type 2 diabetes due to behavioral risks increased by 133.87% and 187.68% from 1990 to 2021.

The T2D burden from high alcohol use increased the most between 1990 and 2021.

Projections show that ASDR for T2D will continue rising through 2050 if current trends persist.

Abstract

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the burden of Type 2 diabetes (T2D) attributable to behavioral risks.

Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data for secondary modeling, we analyzed the burden of T2D attributable to behavioral risks, stratified by age, gender, risk factors, and regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected burden trajectories from 2022 to 2050 under the continuation of historical trends.

From 1990 to 2021, global deaths and DALYs of T2D attributable to behavioral risks increased by 133.87% and 187.68%. The greatest rises in ASMR and ASDR occurred in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. Dietary risks remained the primary contributor, whereas the T2D burden attributable to high alcohol use exhibited the steepest increase from 1990 to 2021. The global ASMR and ASDR increased exponentially with age and were consistently higher in males. Projections from the BAPC model indicate that ASDR is expected to continue increasing through 2050.

T2D burden attributable to behavioral risks is increasing rapidly, underscoring the need for targeted interventions and public health education.

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